Insights

Pre-TDSR condos: reviewing a dated demand forecast

A dated forecast retained with an outcome-review framework.

Published 5 September 2022

Dated 2022 to 2023 forecast. The demand thesis, financing environment and pricing evidence have since evolved.

How to review the forecast outcome

  1. Identify the exact pre-TDSR projects and original launch periods.
  2. Compare later matched transactions with appropriate newer and resale alternatives.
  3. Separate unit attributes from project-age and policy effects.
  4. Recalculate financing under current lending rules and rates.
  5. Evaluate liquidity and total quantum rather than relying on a historical label.

The original forecast is retained for historical accountability, not as a current demand or return claim.