In this episode of Nuggets On The Go, Melvin Lim from PropertyLimBrothers talks about the release of our Q2 report on our PLB insights page, highlighting its most important portions and interesting segments market trends and charts. For example, we look at the movement and correlation between the Singapore Property Price Indexes of landed, condo and HDBs with regards to being the most common asset classes of commodity.He will also touch on alternative investments such as cryptocurrency and how investors have pumped their profits into real estate. However, did the recent crypto dip affect the property market? Additionally, should interest rates be considered as the main factor that affects prices. If it increases in time to come, how will it affect TDSR? Find out more on this episode of Nuggets On The Go!

## You can also see our video on this topic!

## Our Author/Guests

#### Melvin Lim

Melvin Lim is the co-founder and CEO of PropertyLimBrothers (PLB Realty).

In Melvin’s eyes, every home has its own character and is unique. As a realtor, he enjoys telling stories about homes, highlighting what makes them special to potential buyers.

## Transcript

1 – Melvin Lim

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– Okay, it’s recording already hah?

2 – Melvin Lim

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– [Mikhail] Yes.

3 – Melvin Lim

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Okay, can.

4 – Melvin Lim

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Give me three minutes ah.

5 – Melvin Lim

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(hmmm…)

6 – Melvin Lim

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(Melvin……still there?)

7 – Melvin Lim

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(Is 3 minutes enough?)

8 – Melvin Lim

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(…still waiting… LOL)

9 – Melvin Lim

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– All right. Welcome to Nuggets On The Go

10 – Melvin Lim

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episode number 25.

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And today we’re going to release the Q2 report

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of our real estate market in Singapore.

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So let’s move on to

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this episode.

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Let’s go.

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For today’s episode.

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It’s going to be a short brief,

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because we’re going to bring you through

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the most important portions of the report.

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And most importantly is that

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this is going to be released on our PLB Insights page.

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And you’ll be able to head down and download the report.

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(You) just need to, of course,

24 – Melvin Lim

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subscribe to our channel,

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as well as to subscribe to our mailing list.

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Because we hope to keep in touch with you,

27 – Melvin Lim

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with all the different kinds of charts

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as well as the main report itself.

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And we hope to share our charts progressively with you.

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And for today’s episode,

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we want to go through

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and highlight some of the very interesting segments

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of the Q2 real estate market trends report.

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We have also released some of the latest charts

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on our propertylimbrothers.com website.

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Head on to the website,

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look for the tools segment,

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you will be able to see this sub-menu called

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real estate charts.

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And from there, we’ll continue to upload some

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of the very interesting charts.

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So just to give you a quick glimpse

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of what it will look like.

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So firstly, our Analytics team and Research team

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have created some very interesting charts

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that look like this.

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So what we are aspiring to do with this chart is to look

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at some of the movements and correlations.

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And if there were to be any correlation

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between (the) Singapore Property Price Index

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of the landed market, the condo market,

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as well as the HDB market.

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vis-a-vis some of the very common,

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and very popular asset classes and commodity classes.

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So for example, in this particular chart,

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what we did was that we pumped in the Landed Price Index.

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We also pump in the Non-Landed Price Index,

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which is a combination of condos and apartments,

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as well as the HDB price index.

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And if you notice,

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there are four different kinds of legends right here.

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Firstly, we pumped in the STI Index,

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Bitcoin, S&P 500, and Ethereum.

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Because cryptocurrency has been

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one of the very common things that

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a lot of people have been talking about

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in the last two years.

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And we want to see

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whether there was any correlation.

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Now of course you might be asking me,

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“Hey Melvin, why are we comparing

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the Singapore real estate price index

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vis-a-vis Bitcoin and Etherium?”

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Now, one of the key rationales are

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because over the past two years,

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a lot of people not (only) invested into real estate,

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but they have also used some of the gains made

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in cryptocurrencies as well as the S&P 500

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or tech stocks.

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And extracting some of the profit margins

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that they have made

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and pump it into real estate,

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And of course, there was a flush

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in terms of the liquidity in* the earlier part of 2022.

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This has been one of the things that we want to track

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to see whether, is that when

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everybody has their liquidity being affected through

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those alternative investments,

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will this cause a dip in the Singapore real estate market?

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And we want to see that correlation right here

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within this chart.

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And of course the second chart

93 – Melvin Lim

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is that we did a correlation chart to look at

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the three different indexes versus interest rates.

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And over here we’ve pumped in the SIBOR interest rates.

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vis-a-vis the FED interest rates.

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And you can see (that) these two interest rates,

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they run in tandem to one another,

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because Singapore depends a lot

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on the federal interest rate to see

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whether we need to adjust

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the interest rate upwards or downwards.

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So we also want to see

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whether there’s any impact that will be forecasting

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on in the Q3 and Q4 season of 2022.

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And how does this impact

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the three different price indexes.

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Of course something to note is that, real estate

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is more illiquid,

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and it doesn’t mean that when interest rates rise,

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we’ve talked about it

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in a lot of different episodes in the past,

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you can refer to our (previous) NOTG episodes, that

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we want to see

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what is also the time lapse difference

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whether when interest rate rise,

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how long does it take for the property pricing index

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to adjust itself.

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And of course, does it really cost

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an impact this time round?

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Because out of the six, seven rounds,

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only one round during (the) Asian Financial Crisis,

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did we see a downward trend.

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The rest of the seasons

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(are) basically either price stagnates,

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or maybe further increases,

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even when interest rates increase.

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But of course this time round,

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one of the red flags that we notice might happen,

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and of course we’re hoping that this might not happen.

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But we are thinking,

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if let’s say interest rates would to start to challenge

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3% to 3.5%.

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I mean, right now is already at

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2.5% to closing into the high twos,

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in terms of fixed interest rate.

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Let’s say it’s further adjusted to

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let’s say a fixed rate of 3% or

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3.5%,

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what will be the impact

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on our TDSR – Total Debt Servicing Ratio?

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Because, just to give a quick recap

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when TDSR was introduced in the year 2013 June,

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MAS based it on a safe benchmark interest rate of

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3.5%,

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to calculate what is the affordability level of

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the particular borrower.

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So, back then everything was good and fine,

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because our interest rate was overing between 1% to 2%

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all the way since 2013 until today.

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However, if right now, if the fixed interest rate for

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every mortgage is going to be 3.5%,

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or maybe if it’s going to be 4% next year,

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of course we hope that that won’t happen,

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then will MAS and our government adjust

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the base interest rate inside the TDSR calculation method?

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Because if they were to do so,

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what this will mean is that,

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for example, if just 1% upwards from

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3.5% to 4.5%,

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this will mean that every single borrower in the market

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they can technically only borrow lesser.

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And if that were to happen, it might mean that

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you might want to make a decisive decision of,

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should you buy now?

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Or should you wait to see what will be the impact

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if TDSR really were to be adjusted upward

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with their benchmark interest rate.

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Because when everybody’s affordability drops,

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does it cause a huge impact

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in the resale market,

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or in the new launch market?

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And of course, everything is bearing in mind,

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and we hope that you watched the last two episodes

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is that that interest rates just form

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one out of the 10 to 13 components affecting the

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Singapore real estate market.

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Because Singapore is really different.

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And one of the key rationales is that,

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because real estate is illiquid in nature,

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families that have bought in this year in 2022,

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last year, and the year before,

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they’re all being locked in with three years of

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Seller’s Stamp Duty,

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which means that combining the factor that

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a lot of people are buying for own stay,

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and combining the fact that

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everybody is already priced in for three years.

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This, even if there are minute adjustments

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in the interest rates during these three years,

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a lot of families are

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still enjoying their fixed locked-in rates

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over the past one to two years.

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Then it might not cause an impact to them.

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Because by the time,

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let’s say after 2023,

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if the US economy recovers, the global economies recover,

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and let’s say in 2024,

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everything is more rosy and more buoyant.

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Then, interest rates start to drop for example,

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then, (the) property market will then be

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on another new run upwards.

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So I think importantly is just to take interest rates as

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one of the factors and not

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the only factor that affects prices.

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So next, we also want to look at inflation.

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Because inflation vis-a-vis the performance of assets

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across different QE (Quantitative Easing) cycles,

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is one very interesting thing.

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We want to firstly look at when QE happens,

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what happens to inflation.

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When QE two and three happens,

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what happens to inflation as well?

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And when tapering happened during the 2014 season,

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as well as 2018.

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And right now, 2022 is also where (a) QE just started to happen

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after the latest round COVID QE.

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So there’s been a total of four rounds

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of quantitative easing, meaning the government’s printing of money

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basically from (our) federal reserve.

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And then of course,

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this is now the third round of QT (Quantitative Tightening),

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but this time round is different,

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because it’s QT during a high inflation season.

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So there’s the key difference between this round of QT,

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which is quantitative tightening,

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compared to the last two rounds of tapering.

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So this might be something that we want to take note,

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because this round inflation is one of the highest rounds,

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over the past 12 years, ever since 2008.

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And we also want to see whether does this cause an impact

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in our Singapore real estate market.

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One more chart that we have come across

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is basically the asset performance across inflationary cycle

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of US inflation rates and SG inflation rates,

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vis-a-vis our price indexes.

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And of course we have also listed down

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all the cooling measures here.

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So if you head on to our website,

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you’ll be able to have a look and join some of these charts

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and we will be updating them every single quarter,

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at four times a year.

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Next thing is that we have come out with

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close to about 20 different charts.

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And this will all be available

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in our Q2 real estate trends report,

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that’s being done by the PLB Research and Insights team.

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So, this time round the charts are very interactive because…

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let me reload this again.

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Basically what you see is that these are all moving charts.

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And of course, if you watch them on our social media,

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these charts are interactive.

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Firstly, you can play around with them,

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you can hover around within them,

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look at the different kinds of indexes.

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And of course we have done up

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at market PPR versus bubble index as well.

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We have also looked at some of the

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total unsold units right here,

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as well as the volume performance vis-a-vis the price index.

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And also we have segregated them into different regions,

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For example, RCR, OCR, and CCR.

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We have also looked at rental distribution and

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the GLS residential land PPR pricing from 1995 ’til date.

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And we segregated them

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from basically 1996 all the way to now.

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And then, we have also segregated them

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based on CCR, RCR, and OCR.

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Also, we have looked at the

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yearly residential GFA sold in GLS by region as well.

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Also, a lot of very interesting charts this time round.

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So our team has taken a lot of time and effort

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to come up with these beautiful charts for you,

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so that we can all analyse them together.

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And on our next NOTG season,

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we will be talking about these charts on a very deep level.

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Last but not least is that,

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we are also releasing our new launches charts

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by OCR, RCR, and CCR,

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based on quantum pricing, and based on PSF pricing as well.

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So this is something to look out for

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in the next few episodes of NOTG, as well

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as on our propertylimbrothers.com Insights page,

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to look out for the download (link) to the report.

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We will be sending out the link very soon

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and announcing it over our social media.

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So thank you for staying tuned with us

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on this Nuggets On The Go episode number 25.

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Hope to see you on the next few episodes,

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in the meantime,

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take care.