#25 PLB Q2 Report! Cryptocurrency Versus Real Estate? | PropertyLimBrothers | Melvin Lim | NOTG E25

In this episode of Nuggets On The Go, Melvin Lim from PropertyLimBrothers talks about the release of our Q2 report on our PLB insights page, highlighting its most important portions and interesting segments market trends and charts. For example, we look at the movement and correlation between the Singapore Property Price Indexes of landed, condo and HDBs with regards to being the most common asset classes of commodity.He will also touch on alternative investments such as cryptocurrency and how investors have pumped their profits into real estate. However, did the recent crypto dip affect the property market? Additionally, should interest rates be considered as the main factor that affects prices. If it increases in time to come, how will it affect TDSR? Find out more on this episode of Nuggets On The Go!

You can also see our video on this topic!

Our Author/Guests

Melvin Lim

Melvin Lim is the co-founder and CEO of PropertyLimBrothers (PLB Realty).

In Melvin’s eyes, every home has its own character and is unique. As a realtor, he enjoys telling stories about homes, highlighting what makes them special to potential buyers.

Transcript

1 – Melvin Lim
00:00:00,440 –> 00:00:02,400
– Okay, it’s recording already hah?

2 – Melvin Lim
00:00:02,400 –> 00:00:03,320
– [Mikhail] Yes.

3 – Melvin Lim
00:00:03,320 –> 00:00:03,960
Okay, can.

4 – Melvin Lim
00:00:03,960 –> 00:00:05,720
Give me three minutes ah.

5 – Melvin Lim
00:00:13,480 –> 00:00:14,960
(hmmm…)

6 – Melvin Lim
00:00:14,960 –> 00:00:16,800
(Melvin……still there?)

7 – Melvin Lim
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(Is 3 minutes enough?)

8 – Melvin Lim
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(…still waiting… LOL)

9 – Melvin Lim
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– All right. Welcome to Nuggets On The Go

10 – Melvin Lim
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episode number 25.

11 – Melvin Lim
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And today we’re going to release the Q2 report

12 – Melvin Lim
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of our real estate market in Singapore.

13 – Melvin Lim
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So let’s move on to

14 – Melvin Lim
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this episode.

15 – Melvin Lim
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Let’s go.

16 – Melvin Lim
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For today’s episode.

17 – Melvin Lim
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It’s going to be a short brief,

18 – Melvin Lim
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because we’re going to bring you through

19 – Melvin Lim
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the most important portions of the report.

20 – Melvin Lim
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And most importantly is that

21 – Melvin Lim
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this is going to be released on our PLB Insights page.

22 – Melvin Lim
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And you’ll be able to head down and download the report.

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(You) just need to, of course,

24 – Melvin Lim
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subscribe to our channel,

25 – Melvin Lim
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as well as to subscribe to our mailing list.

26 – Melvin Lim
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Because we hope to keep in touch with you,

27 – Melvin Lim
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with all the different kinds of charts

28 – Melvin Lim
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as well as the main report itself.

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And we hope to share our charts progressively with you.

30 – Melvin Lim
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And for today’s episode,

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we want to go through

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and highlight some of the very interesting segments

33 – Melvin Lim
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of the Q2 real estate market trends report.

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We have also released some of the latest charts

35 – Melvin Lim
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on our propertylimbrothers.com website.

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Head on to the website,

37 – Melvin Lim
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look for the tools segment,

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you will be able to see this sub-menu called

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real estate charts.

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And from there, we’ll continue to upload some

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of the very interesting charts.

42 – Melvin Lim
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So just to give you a quick glimpse

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of what it will look like.

44 – Melvin Lim
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So firstly, our Analytics team and Research team

45 – Melvin Lim
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have created some very interesting charts

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that look like this.

47 – Melvin Lim
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So what we are aspiring to do with this chart is to look

48 – Melvin Lim
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at some of the movements and correlations.

49 – Melvin Lim
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And if there were to be any correlation

50 – Melvin Lim
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between (the) Singapore Property Price Index

51 – Melvin Lim
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of the landed market, the condo market,

52 – Melvin Lim
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as well as the HDB market.

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vis-a-vis some of the very common,

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and very popular asset classes and commodity classes.

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So for example, in this particular chart,

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what we did was that we pumped in the Landed Price Index.

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We also pump in the Non-Landed Price Index,

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which is a combination of condos and apartments,

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as well as the HDB price index.

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And if you notice,

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there are four different kinds of legends right here.

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Firstly, we pumped in the STI Index,

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Bitcoin, S&P 500, and Ethereum.

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Because cryptocurrency has been

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one of the very common things that

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a lot of people have been talking about

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in the last two years.

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And we want to see

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whether there was any correlation.

70 – Melvin Lim
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Now of course you might be asking me,

71 – Melvin Lim
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“Hey Melvin, why are we comparing

72 – Melvin Lim
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the Singapore real estate price index

73 – Melvin Lim
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vis-a-vis Bitcoin and Etherium?”

74 – Melvin Lim
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Now, one of the key rationales are

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because over the past two years,

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a lot of people not (only) invested into real estate,

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but they have also used some of the gains made

78 – Melvin Lim
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in cryptocurrencies as well as the S&P 500

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or tech stocks.

80 – Melvin Lim
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And extracting some of the profit margins

81 – Melvin Lim
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that they have made

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and pump it into real estate,

83 – Melvin Lim
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And of course, there was a flush

84 – Melvin Lim
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in terms of the liquidity in* the earlier part of 2022.

85 – Melvin Lim
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This has been one of the things that we want to track

86 – Melvin Lim
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to see whether, is that when

87 – Melvin Lim
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everybody has their liquidity being affected through

88 – Melvin Lim
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those alternative investments,

89 – Melvin Lim
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will this cause a dip in the Singapore real estate market?

90 – Melvin Lim
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And we want to see that correlation right here

91 – Melvin Lim
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within this chart.

92 – Melvin Lim
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And of course the second chart

93 – Melvin Lim
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is that we did a correlation chart to look at

94 – Melvin Lim
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the three different indexes versus interest rates.

95 – Melvin Lim
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And over here we’ve pumped in the SIBOR interest rates.

96 – Melvin Lim
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vis-a-vis the FED interest rates.

97 – Melvin Lim
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And you can see (that) these two interest rates,

98 – Melvin Lim
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they run in tandem to one another,

99 – Melvin Lim
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because Singapore depends a lot

100 – Melvin Lim
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on the federal interest rate to see

101 – Melvin Lim
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whether we need to adjust

102 – Melvin Lim
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the interest rate upwards or downwards.

103 – Melvin Lim
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So we also want to see

104 – Melvin Lim
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whether there’s any impact that will be forecasting

105 – Melvin Lim
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on in the Q3 and Q4 season of 2022.

106 – Melvin Lim
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And how does this impact

107 – Melvin Lim
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the three different price indexes.

108 – Melvin Lim
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Of course something to note is that, real estate

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is more illiquid,

110 – Melvin Lim
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and it doesn’t mean that when interest rates rise,

111 – Melvin Lim
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we’ve talked about it

112 – Melvin Lim
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in a lot of different episodes in the past,

113 – Melvin Lim
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you can refer to our (previous) NOTG episodes, that

114 – Melvin Lim
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we want to see

115 – Melvin Lim
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what is also the time lapse difference

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whether when interest rate rise,

117 – Melvin Lim
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how long does it take for the property pricing index

118 – Melvin Lim
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to adjust itself.

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And of course, does it really cost

120 – Melvin Lim
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an impact this time round?

121 – Melvin Lim
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Because out of the six, seven rounds,

122 – Melvin Lim
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only one round during (the) Asian Financial Crisis,

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did we see a downward trend.

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The rest of the seasons

125 – Melvin Lim
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(are) basically either price stagnates,

126 – Melvin Lim
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or maybe further increases,

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even when interest rates increase.

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But of course this time round,

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one of the red flags that we notice might happen,

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and of course we’re hoping that this might not happen.

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But we are thinking,

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if let’s say interest rates would to start to challenge

133 – Melvin Lim
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3% to 3.5%.

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I mean, right now is already at

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2.5% to closing into the high twos,

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in terms of fixed interest rate.

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Let’s say it’s further adjusted to

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let’s say a fixed rate of 3% or

139 – Melvin Lim
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3.5%,

140 – Melvin Lim
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what will be the impact

141 – Melvin Lim
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on our TDSR – Total Debt Servicing Ratio?

142 – Melvin Lim
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Because, just to give a quick recap

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when TDSR was introduced in the year 2013 June,

144 – Melvin Lim
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MAS based it on a safe benchmark interest rate of

145 – Melvin Lim
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3.5%,

146 – Melvin Lim
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to calculate what is the affordability level of

147 – Melvin Lim
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the particular borrower.

148 – Melvin Lim
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So, back then everything was good and fine,

149 – Melvin Lim
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because our interest rate was overing between 1% to 2%

150 – Melvin Lim
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all the way since 2013 until today.

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However, if right now, if the fixed interest rate for

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every mortgage is going to be 3.5%,

153 – Melvin Lim
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or maybe if it’s going to be 4% next year,

154 – Melvin Lim
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of course we hope that that won’t happen,

155 – Melvin Lim
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then will MAS and our government adjust

156 – Melvin Lim
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the base interest rate inside the TDSR calculation method?

157 – Melvin Lim
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Because if they were to do so,

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what this will mean is that,

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for example, if just 1% upwards from

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3.5% to 4.5%,

161 – Melvin Lim
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this will mean that every single borrower in the market

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they can technically only borrow lesser.

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And if that were to happen, it might mean that

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you might want to make a decisive decision of,

165 – Melvin Lim
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should you buy now?

166 – Melvin Lim
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Or should you wait to see what will be the impact

167 – Melvin Lim
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if TDSR really were to be adjusted upward

168 – Melvin Lim
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with their benchmark interest rate.

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Because when everybody’s affordability drops,

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does it cause a huge impact

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in the resale market,

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or in the new launch market?

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And of course, everything is bearing in mind,

174 – Melvin Lim
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and we hope that you watched the last two episodes

175 – Melvin Lim
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is that that interest rates just form

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one out of the 10 to 13 components affecting the

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Singapore real estate market.

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Because Singapore is really different.

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And one of the key rationales is that,

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because real estate is illiquid in nature,

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families that have bought in this year in 2022,

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last year, and the year before,

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they’re all being locked in with three years of

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Seller’s Stamp Duty,

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which means that combining the factor that

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a lot of people are buying for own stay,

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and combining the fact that

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everybody is already priced in for three years.

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This, even if there are minute adjustments

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in the interest rates during these three years,

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a lot of families are

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still enjoying their fixed locked-in rates

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over the past one to two years.

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Then it might not cause an impact to them.

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Because by the time,

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let’s say after 2023,

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if the US economy recovers, the global economies recover,

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and let’s say in 2024,

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everything is more rosy and more buoyant.

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Then, interest rates start to drop for example,

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then, (the) property market will then be

202 – Melvin Lim
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on another new run upwards.

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So I think importantly is just to take interest rates as

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one of the factors and not

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the only factor that affects prices.

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So next, we also want to look at inflation.

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Because inflation vis-a-vis the performance of assets

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across different QE (Quantitative Easing) cycles,

209 – Melvin Lim
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is one very interesting thing.

210 – Melvin Lim
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We want to firstly look at when QE happens,

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what happens to inflation.

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When QE two and three happens,

213 – Melvin Lim
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what happens to inflation as well?

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And when tapering happened during the 2014 season,

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as well as 2018.

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And right now, 2022 is also where (a) QE just started to happen

217 – Melvin Lim
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after the latest round COVID QE.

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So there’s been a total of four rounds

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of quantitative easing, meaning the government’s printing of money

220 – Melvin Lim
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basically from (our) federal reserve.

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And then of course,

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this is now the third round of QT (Quantitative Tightening),

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but this time round is different,

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because it’s QT during a high inflation season.

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So there’s the key difference between this round of QT,

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which is quantitative tightening,

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compared to the last two rounds of tapering.

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So this might be something that we want to take note,

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because this round inflation is one of the highest rounds,

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over the past 12 years, ever since 2008.

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And we also want to see whether does this cause an impact

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in our Singapore real estate market.

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One more chart that we have come across

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is basically the asset performance across inflationary cycle

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of US inflation rates and SG inflation rates,

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vis-a-vis our price indexes.

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And of course we have also listed down

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all the cooling measures here.

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So if you head on to our website,

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you’ll be able to have a look and join some of these charts

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and we will be updating them every single quarter,

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at four times a year.

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Next thing is that we have come out with

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close to about 20 different charts.

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And this will all be available

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in our Q2 real estate trends report,

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that’s being done by the PLB Research and Insights team.

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So, this time round the charts are very interactive because…

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let me reload this again.

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Basically what you see is that these are all moving charts.

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And of course, if you watch them on our social media,

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these charts are interactive.

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Firstly, you can play around with them,

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you can hover around within them,

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look at the different kinds of indexes.

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And of course we have done up

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at market PPR versus bubble index as well.

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We have also looked at some of the

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total unsold units right here,

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as well as the volume performance vis-a-vis the price index.

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And also we have segregated them into different regions,

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For example, RCR, OCR, and CCR.

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We have also looked at rental distribution and

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the GLS residential land PPR pricing from 1995 ’til date.

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And we segregated them

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from basically 1996 all the way to now.

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And then, we have also segregated them

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based on CCR, RCR, and OCR.

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Also, we have looked at the

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yearly residential GFA sold in GLS by region as well.

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Also, a lot of very interesting charts this time round.

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So our team has taken a lot of time and effort

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to come up with these beautiful charts for you,

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so that we can all analyse them together.

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And on our next NOTG season,

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we will be talking about these charts on a very deep level.

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Last but not least is that,

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we are also releasing our new launches charts

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by OCR, RCR, and CCR,

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based on quantum pricing, and based on PSF pricing as well.

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So this is something to look out for

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in the next few episodes of NOTG, as well

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as on our propertylimbrothers.com Insights page,

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to look out for the download (link) to the report.

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We will be sending out the link very soon

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and announcing it over our social media.

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So thank you for staying tuned with us

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on this Nuggets On The Go episode number 25.

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Hope to see you on the next few episodes,

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in the meantime,

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take care.