Dated forecast: 2022. This archive records the evidence and expectations available then; it is not a current market call.
How to evaluate a historical forecast
- Record the forecast date, indicators and assumptions.
- Compare the prediction with subsequent transaction volume and prices.
- Separate national movement from segment and project outcomes.
- Review policy, interest-rate, supply and demand changes that followed.
- Do not carry a bullish or bearish label into today's market without new evidence.
The value of this page is in testing its reasoning against later outcomes. Current decisions require current transactions, supply and financing conditions.