Updated September 2026. This replaces the earlier forecast with realised evidence and is not market-timing advice.
Cooling measures work through several channels
Buyer stamp duties, loan constraints, seller stamp duty and housing supply can affect different households and market segments differently. IRAS currently states that, for acquisitions on or after 27 April 2023, an eligible Singapore citizen pays no ABSD on a first residential property, 20% on a second and 30% on a third or subsequent property. Other buyer profiles have different rates.
Rules changed again during the forecast window
For residential properties bought on or after 4 July 2025, IRAS states that the SSD holding period increased from three to four years and rates rose by four percentage points at each tier. Always check the transaction date and current IRAS rules.
The realised 2026 outcome was neither a single crash nor a single calm market
URA reported that the overall private residential price index rose 0.5% in 2Q2026 and 1.4% in the first half of 2026. Landed prices increased while non-landed prices edged down, and regional movements differed. URA also advised households to exercise prudence amid an uncertain macroeconomic outlook. This mixed evidence does not prove that one measure caused the result.